The best crypto writing from the last 24 hours.
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- 1
How quickly did Polymarket react to Nvidia news?
Protos used the Polymarket API to measure how quickly prediction markets priced in Nvidia leadership news.
- 2
Kalshi Ends Donald Trump Jr.'s Advisor Role: Reuters
Kalshi ended Donald Trump Jr.'s advisor role, mutually, after his firm led a funding round for rival Polymarket.
- 3
Polymarket Cuts Staff and Contractors in Reorganization
Polymarket cuts staff and contractors in a reorganization while revenue reportedly rises and it trails Kalshi.
- 4
Elizabeth Warren Plans Prediction Market Crackdown as She Prepares to Chair Senate Banking
Incoming Senate Banking chair Warren plans a crackdown on prediction markets after pressing Kalshi and Polymarket on election trading.
- 5
CFTC Again Probes Polymarket Over Whether It Let Americans Trade
The CFTC is reportedly probing whether Polymarket breached its 2022 settlement by letting US users onto its offshore platform.
- 6
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Who Decides Winners and When Funds Can Leave
Compares how Kalshi and Polymarket decide winning positions and how quickly funds can leave each platform.
- 7
Polymarket Has Investigated 'Dozens' of Midterm Election Bets: Report
Polymarket says its surveillance flags hundreds of alerts daily and it has sent at least two midterm betting cases to the CFTC.
Also covered by Unchained - 8
Polymarket Probes Suspicious Israeli Election Trades
Polymarket is investigating suspicious Israeli election trades, with some accounts cashing out over $100K.
- 9
Polymarket US vs. Kalshi: What a 100-Contract Trade Costs
Worked comparison of fees for a 100-contract trade on Polymarket US versus Kalshi, useful for prediction market traders.
- 10
Polymarket Adds Five-Minute Crypto Contracts to US App
Polymarket added five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP contracts to its US app, settled on CF Benchmarks prices.
- 11
Polymarket Investigated 'Dozens' of Midterm Bets, NPR Reports
NPR reports Polymarket investigated dozens of midterm bets, with at least two referred to the CFTC.
- 12
NBA becomes third league to sign CFTC prediction market pact, taps Kalshi and Polymarket
The NBA signed a CFTC prediction market pact, naming Kalshi and Polymarket as partners.
- 13
Brazil Election Results Spark Debate Over Prediction Markets After Lula Wins at 20% Odds
Polymarket and Kalshi priced a Lula loss at roughly 20% before he won Brazil's runoff, reigniting debate over prediction market accuracy.
- 14
Crypto.com, Novig sue Missouri over sports event contracts; Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood hold off
Missouri sued Crypto.com and Novig over sports event contracts, while Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood have not filed suits. Useful regulatory news for prediction markets.
Also covered by The Defiant - 15
9.42 Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority? The 3% Who Carry Polymarket
A sign-randomization test finds about 3% of Polymarket accounts still beat random betting, and their volume reduces pricing error while crowd volume raises it.
- 16
9.48 Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? The Binary Benchmark
Analysis finds Polymarket bitcoin threshold prices sit about six points above option-implied risk-neutral prices, with the gap narrowing over hours.
- 17
StarkWare launches OffMarket to let Polymarket users trade more privately
StarkWare opened OffMarket to the public, letting Polymarket users trade without publicly linking positions to their accounts.
- 18
Kalshi and Polymarket won’t be part of FTC sports gambling probe, report
Report says the FTC sports gambling probe will focus on sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, not prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.